If you’re trying to buy your first home—or sell a home that isn’t moving—the real estate market heading into 2026 probably feels frustrating, confusing, and stacked against you.
Mortgage rates aren’t falling the way headlines promised. Monthly payments feel high. Buyers feel stuck on the sidelines. Sellers are watching their listings sit longer than expected. And everyone seems to be waiting for “something” to change.
I’m Cody Posey, a real estate agent focused on the New Braunfels–San Antonio metro, and my job isn’t to predict the future or sell optimism. It’s to interpret what the data is actually telling us—so you can make informed decisions instead of emotional ones.
Let’s walk through where the San Antonio–New Braunfels MSA stands heading into 2026, what’s causing the real pain around affordability, and—most importantly—what buyers and sellers can realistically do about it.
A Market That Didn’t Crash—But Did Change
One of the biggest misconceptions I still hear is that the local housing market is either “about to crash” or “about to take off again.”
Neither is true.
What the data shows is a market that has normalized after the extreme conditions of 2020–2022.
Sales activity rebounded through late 2024 instead of collapsing. Prices stabilized instead of falling sharply. Inventory improved instead of tightening further. That’s not a boom or a bust—it’s a transition to a more balanced environment.
For buyers, that means more options and more negotiating power than they’ve had in years.
For sellers, it means the days of throwing a sign in the yard and waiting for multiple offers are gone.
This shift is the source of most of today’s frustration—because expectations haven’t caught up to reality.
Mortgage Rates: The Psychological Roadblock
Let’s address the elephant in the room.
Mortgage interest rates heading into 2026 are expected to hover in the low-6% range, give or take. That’s lower than the peaks of 2023, but nowhere near the 3% rates many buyers still have in their heads.
Here’s the problem: most buyers aren’t struggling with affordability because of price alone—they’re struggling because they’re anchoring to a rate environment that no longer exists.
Rates today are closer to historical norms than the anomaly years of the late 2010s and early pandemic period. The shock isn’t mathematical—it’s emotional.
When buyers freeze waiting for rates to “go back,” they often miss the bigger picture:
- Prices in this metro have remained relatively stable
- Inventory has increased
- Sellers are more flexible than they’ve been in years
The question isn’t “Are rates perfect?”
It’s “Does the math work for my life right now?”
Why the San Antonio–New Braunfels Area Still Works for First-Time Buyers
Compared to other major Texas metros, this region remains one of the most accessible entry points to homeownership.
Median prices hovering around the $300,000 range may feel high compared to a decade ago, but they are still well below Austin and Dallas. That matters—especially when paired with the types of homes and financing options common in this market.
A large share of transactions here fall into the $200,000–$450,000 range, which aligns closely with first-time buyer financing programs like FHA and VA loans.
This isn’t a luxury-dominated market. It’s a working, living, growing metro—and that’s a big reason affordability hasn’t collapsed under higher rates.
FHA Loans: Still One of the Most Important Tools in 2026
For first-time buyers, FHA loans continue to play a critical role in keeping homeownership within reach.
Despite higher rates, FHA remains relevant because of structure, not subsidies.
Here’s what matters:
- Lower down payment: 3.5% is still the standard
- More flexible credit requirements than conventional loans
- Higher allowable debt-to-income ratios for qualified buyers
- Designed for buyers with solid income but limited savings history
In a market where monthly payment sensitivity matters more than sticker price, FHA financing fits the dominant price bands in the San Antonio–New Braunfels area.
That doesn’t mean FHA is right for everyone. Mortgage insurance costs and long-term payment structure still matter. But for many first-time buyers, FHA is the bridge between renting indefinitely and owning responsibly.
What the Government Is Trying to Do—Without the Politics
There’s a lot of noise around housing policy, but stripped of politics, the core objective is simple: keep homeownership accessible without inflating prices further.
Most efforts focus on:
- Maintaining low-down-payment loan options
- Supporting first-time buyer entry into the market
- Encouraging housing supply through construction
- Preserving lending flexibility without returning to reckless underwriting
Programs like FHA aren’t designed to make homes “cheap.” They’re designed to make them possible—especially in markets where income growth can support ownership, but upfront barriers hold buyers back.
That distinction matters.
Sellers: Why Homes Are Sitting—and What Actually Works in 2026
If you’re a homeowner struggling to sell, the issue is rarely your home itself.
It’s usually one of three things:
- Pricing anchored to 2021 expectations
- Lack of incentive alignment with today’s buyers
- Underestimating how rate sensitivity affects demand
Buyers in 2026 are payment-focused. They’re comparing monthly costs, not just list prices. Homes that acknowledge this reality move. Homes that don’t, sit.
That doesn’t always mean a price cut. It can mean:
- Strategic concessions
- Rate buydown contributions
- Flexible closing terms
- Pricing ahead of competition instead of chasing it
The sellers who succeed are the ones who adapt—not the ones who wait for the market to come back to them.
Inventory and Construction: Why This Isn’t 2021 Anymore
Builders in the region have responded aggressively to population growth and demand, increasing new-home starts and expanding inventory.
That’s good for buyers—but it changes the competitive landscape for resale homes.
New construction often comes with:
- Incentives
- Rate buydowns
- Closing cost assistance
Resale sellers now compete against that reality, whether they like it or not.
The upside? Buyers finally have leverage.
The downside? Sellers must be strategic.
The Way Forward: What Actually Matters in 2026
For buyers:
- Stop waiting for perfect rates
- Focus on total payment and long-term flexibility
- Use available financing tools intelligently
- Buy when the math works—not when headlines feel good
For sellers:
- Price for today, not yesterday
- Understand buyer psychology
- Compete on terms, not just features
- Accept that negotiation is normal again
This market rewards clarity—not bravado.
Final Thought: Clarity Beats Timing
The biggest mistake I see—on both sides—is waiting for certainty.
There isn’t any.
But there is clarity in the data. The San Antonio–New Braunfels market heading into 2026 is stable, growing, and still accessible—if you understand how to navigate it.
Whether you’re buying your first home or trying to sell one that isn’t moving, the goal isn’t perfection.
It’s understanding.
Understand and know your numbers.
Understand and know your options.
Understand and know when a decision actually makes sense for you.
